A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
