A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
